I’d like to begin by wishing everyone happiness and success in 2023.

The soccer World Cup was held at the end of 2022. While Japan advanced deep into the tournament, they lost in a penalty shootout in the end. So close, what a shame! In the qualifying round, they even managed to topple perennial powerhouses Germany and Spain. This exciting performance that made us start to believe they could make it to the top four, or even win the whole thing! While the team’s journey ended with the round of 16, it was an uplifting event that united us as a nation toward a common goal: victory.

In the end, Argentina captured the title with a hard-fought victory over France, again in a penalty shootout. What’s particularly notable is that Argentina is not the world’s most talented and strongest team. Fortune—luck, if you will—is a powerful force. What people believe is a battle of strength at the World Cup is ultimately a contest of luck between teams of a certain level. Although Japan defeated Germany and Spain, not many people would tell you that they thought Japan was superior in terms of talent to either of those teams.

I’d like, at this point, to suggest an alternative way to structure the World Cup. The qualifying round would be the same, with four teams playing a round-robin tournament of 10 matches each, with the superior teams receiving the winning points and the top two teams advancing to the final round. In the final round, each team would again play 10 matches, with the strongest teams advancing to the top eight, the top four, and the championship. In other words, to take out the title, a team would have to play 30 matches in the preliminary round and 40 in the final round. It seems to me that this would produce a result that would be more indicative of the true talent of the participating teams.

But this would make the competition commercially unviable because it would simply take much too long to complete the tournament. First of all, people around the world – soccer fans more than anyone – wouldn’t want this to happen. What they want from the World Cup is to come together with fellow fans toward a single goal, to create a sense of exaltation for themselves, their peers, and society. Simply stated, they want it to be an exciting event, not to reveal which team is truly the best. Sometimes when a shot hits the goalpost, it fortuitously trickles over the goal line, and sometimes it caroms harmlessly away. And sometimes, in a penalty shootout, when your team’s goalkeeper’s instincts tell him to go to the left, the opposing team’s kicker has also chosen to fire in that direction. If your team is reasonably competent, you may win the game with varying degrees of probability. What’s more, the 90-minute time limit is a big part of the fun of the game of soccer. In the midst of all this, Japan, thanks to the efforts of a competent and decisive coach, basically won the lottery against Germany and Spain. It is often said that the game is ruled by the luck of the day.

2023 is the year of my 60^th birthday, and thus the 60^th time I’ve experienced a new year. It’s funny, but when you have lived long enough to see the zodiac come full circle, things that are obvious finally become evident. Similar to the World Cup, life is also a contest of luck by people with certain abilities and as a result of certain efforts. In my work, I sometimes meet young, talented venture business entrepreneurs with impressive backgrounds. But I have seen many such situations where success was dependent upon good fortune. In another parallel to the World Cup, you can win in the preliminary round on merit, but luck has to be on your side in the final round.

Even in the realm of domestic IPOs, only about 100 companies a year are lucky enough to be able to execute. But there are at least 300 to 500 companies that would like to do so and have commensurate competency. Being able to execute an IPO is not necessarily a matter simply of merit but of fortune. And not being able to do it one year does not put them in an advantageous position for the following year. Another “battle for good fortune” awaits in the coming year, with a number of companies of considerable capability.

It is not easy for young people to grasp and can even be difficult for older people who lack insight. They simply think that winning and losing are determined by worthiness, and they are drawn in that direction, setting aside karma and favors. I have encountered many such people. The words “luck,” “fate,” and “favor,” which have a similar ring, may very well be linked.

We all hope for luck throughout our lives. So where does good luck come from, and how can we get our hands on it? Naturally, no one has the answer to that. If we could, our lives would not be so mysterious. But there are some things we can understand. First, we need to define what “luck” is for us individually. In the end, it’s a matter of setting our own parameters and not observing those of anyone else. This would drastically increase the number of lucky people and make the world a better place. And those who have experienced good fortune then take on responsibility, such as paying it forward to others in some form. Or perhaps those who assist others in benefitting from good fortune are then the beneficiaries of luck, though this is merely conjecture.

I’m sorry for starting the year off with such an odd topic.

Hirotaka Shimizu
Chairman and CEO
Kamakura Shinsho, Ltd.