When I went to hold my smartphone's IC card over the cash register sensor to pay for my coffee, I couldn't help but shout, "What?” The coffee shop clerk, surprised, and asked, "Sir, what is it? What’s wrong?” I had just received the news on my phone of the shooting of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In Japan, the only gun-related crimes I’d heard about were related to gang wars. There is no way that Mr. Abe would be involved in those kinds of affairs unless it was as a political prisoner. Mr. Abe, however, was a member of
parliament who was no longer in power. Then I pondered how such a thing could have happened, and the only conclusion I could arrive at was that it was the work of mere thugs or people who were severely mentally disturbed.

In the immediate aftermath, news media united in voicing condemnation of the perpetrator, decrying the act as "an affront to democracy," "suppression of speech," and "an act of terrorism.” At the same time, there was a series of statements lauding the lifetime achievements of the victim, former Prime Minister Abe. Akio Mimura, chairman of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI), said, "He was a great politician who did his utmost to serve the nation," and "made every effort to bring about a bright turning point in the course of the country, including the achievement of a breakthrough on the road to Japan's economic revival.” I certainly agree that he has served his country for many years and worked hard to reenergize the economy. However, looking at quotes from Keidanren chairman Masakazu Tokura: "Abenomics has brought about a strong revival of the Japanese economy” or Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda: "Abenomics has contributed significantly toward overcoming the extended period of deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth,” I have to wonder what underpins their statements about economic growth, given that Japan was overtaken by South Korea in terms of average wage (2020 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development survey). And isn't the break from deflation simply the result of global-scale inflation, a dangerous situation (i.e., bad inflation) rather than the favorable outcome of a virtuous cycle, such as rising wages sparking increased consumption? The best that can be done is to continue observing. Many others have been equally effusive in their praise, but most of these people are short on objectivity because of their strong mourning for Mr. Abe’s untimely death.

People seem to be in the habit of conflating disparate events that are not necessarily linked.

A "violent death" and a "legacy of achievement" are two separate entities.

In this mood of mourning, it was decided to hold a state funeral a few days later to bolster public opinion. Meanwhile, the perpetrator's motive for committing the crime became clear. Most are aware of this, but in a nutshell, it became increasingly evident that it is a powerful grudge against a particular religious group, and that the victim had various relationships with this group. And although the group changed its name, thereby making its existence less obvious, it was reported that the group had caused a host of social problems in the past.

The issue concerning the former Unification Church dates back to the late 1960s. Parents launched a movement to recover children who had left home after having been recruited by
the group, and in the 1980s, inspirational business and joint weddings began to be regarded as a problem. According to the National Network of Lawyers Against Spiritual Sales, there have been approximately 34,000 fraudulent business claims over the past 35 years, totaling more than 120 billion yen in damages, but this is just the tip of the iceberg. (Tokyo Shimbun editorial, July 28, 2022)

It is now clear that not only the former Prime Minister but also many Diet members—mainly from the Liberal Democratic Party’s Abe faction—were linked to the Unification Church.
Since the members of the Diet are voted in by the electorate, the number of votes they receive determines whether they win or lose… sort of a “life or death” vote. Amidst these conditions, votes from followers of religious groups are more certain than those from less binding support organizations such as labor unions or medical associations, because the former are based on religious beliefs. Moreover, faith is a strong motivator, making possible support for canvassing and election activities. It may be said that the group’s existence is the most gratifying for a legislator during a period of instability in their current position. Applying a little imagination makes it clear that the favorable relationship between the faction's leader and the religious group may have played a role in the faction's unifying power through canvassing.

But relationships between legislators (candidates) and support organizations exist everywhere, and that, in and of itself, is not wrong or illegal. I think it is misguided to treat a person as a sinner for spending 10,000 yen on membership fees for some organizations, but here, too, the media and public opinion are incorrectly conflating them. Of course, if the Prime Minister exercised his authority to approve the renaming of a religious group—as some reports indicate—this would merit a proper investigation. The act of spending a small amount of money on dues, however, is clearly on a different level. But public opinion doesn’t distinguish between what is problematic and what isn’t. It's all conflated again.

After all these complications, the initial mood of mourning has changed dramatically. The most recent public opinion polls show that the majority opposes a state funeral. However,
Prime Minister Kishida cannot now say that he will not go forward with the state funeral. It cannot be said that his decision regarding a state funeral was influenced by the winds of public opinion, and pulling out would constitute bad optics from the perspective of foreign countries. State funerals should be decided based on certain objective criteria—such as how it would benefit the nation, for instance—and not on shifting public opinion. Here again, is a case of Prime Minister Kishida and the government conflating things that are not
necessarily connected.

It isn’t appropriate to conflate disparate events and make judgments about them, but we seem to struggle with this.

Hirotaka Shimizu
Chairman and CEO
Kamakura Shinsho, Ltd.