Lately, I find myself writing about President Trump more often than I’d like, and I apologize for that. But since I don’t watch Netflix, this is my idea of the best kind of comedy. So please bear with me once more as I share another Trump-related story.

As of this writing (May 13), the latest installment of this comedy is the back-and-forth over the temporary suspension of high tariffs between the US and China. The point is that if you’re going to retract your statement in just a month, you shouldn’t have made it in the first place. It’s a textbook example of a haphazard administration.

In my previous column, I discussed the US-China tariff issue, and events have since unfolded much as I expected. Looking back, here’s how the situation has played out:

Believing that slapping high tariffs on China would force them to cave, Trump went ahead with the move. But to his surprise, rather than backing down, China retaliated by imposing tariffs of the same rate on US imports. Frustrated, Trump raised the tariffs even further, determined to make China surrender this time. But once again, China pushed back. Before long, the tariff rate on Chinese goods had climbed to 145%—a dangerously high level that threatened to bring bilateral trade to a halt. China, with a long-term perspective, settled in for a war of attrition. Meanwhile, concerns began to mount within the Trump administration that if the trade conflict dragged on, the domestic economy might not hold up. After all, Chinese products are deeply embedded in nearly every aspect of American life. And yet, having started this confrontation, Trump couldn’t easily back down. Enter Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Bessent approached China with a message along the lines of, “Shall we talk about the tariffs?” China’s response was essentially, “We’re willing to talk, but we’re not going all the way to the US.” Naturally, the US didn’t want to appear weak, either, so traveling to China was out of the question. In the end, the compromise became something like, “How about meeting somewhere neutral—say, Geneva?”

And so, after all the drama, the high tariffs were ultimately put on hold for 90 days. During this period, it was almost exclusively the US issuing public statements—China remained virtually silent, as if to mock the Trump administration’s one-man show. What will happen after the 90-day suspension ends? The answer is obvious: the US won’t be able to reimpose high tariffs. Raising tariffs just 15 months before the midterm elections would effectively mean price hikes on Chinese goods, which are woven into nearly every aspect of daily American life. That would leave a deeply negative impression on voters. Worse, it could trigger inflation and a slowdown in the economy—both of which would be politically disastrous for the Republican Party. China understands this dynamic all too well. In short, China now has the upper hand in the tariff negotiations.

At the most, tariffs on China will be capped at around 30%. From there, the US may attempt to extract concessions on issues that are largely inconsequential to China and exaggerate those outcomes as “major victories.” But that’s about all they can do.

This entire exchange serves to encourage countries like Japan, the EU, and other parts of Asia as they prepare for their own negotiations with the US. It has become clear that even if high tariffs are imposed under the guise of long-term strategy and strong conviction, they are ultimately just a bargaining tool—as long as a country doesn’t cave in to the initial pressure, a reasonable compromise can eventually be reached. In this sense, the US-China talks have become a reference point for how other countries may approach negotiations with the US, likely resulting in more measured, moderate outcomes. Trump may have styled himself as “Tariff Man,” but in the end, the results were more befitting of a “Tariff Boy.” As a result, the tariff revenues he had counted on will likely fall short, and the sweeping tax cuts he promised may ultimately prove unachievable.

Japan will soon be entering its own round of tariff negotiations with the US. And here, I’d like to offer a proposal to the Ishiba administration—though I doubt it will be heard.

The first thing Mr. Ishiba must consider is, “What truly serves national interest?” I believe it is a mistake to define national interest simply as “reaching a mutually acceptable compromise through negotiations.” If Japan yields too easily, it effectively aids the Trump administration in its efforts to dismantle the global free trade system. Instead, Japan should make it clear that such a mindset is fundamentally flawed, and must work to help both the Trump administration and the American public understand that preserving a rules-based, free trade framework remains the best option for all.

To that end, it is essential to call for collaboration with the EU, other Asian nations, and even China, and to reaffirm a shared commitment that each country will engage in tough, persistent negotiations.

If the current 90-day grace period is extended, it will soon turn into another 90 days, and before long, the US midterm elections in the fall of next year will be drawing near. As that moment approaches, a panicked Trump administration may attempt to force through another tariff hike. But that’s precisely when we must hold firm. We must stay committed to the belief that high tariffs will harm the US economy first. Even if that means accepting some short-term sacrifices, we must stay the course in negotiations aimed at preserving the global free trade system. Nations must not become fixated on short-term national interests—such as mitigating the immediate economic shock through compromise—at the expense of long-term national interests, namely, the preservation of a rules-based international trade order.

Now more than ever, each country needs leaders who prioritize long-term national interests over short-term gains (Prime Minister Carney of Canada strikes me as one such leader). What matters most is that nations stand together to ensure that no leader who seeks to dismantle the free trade system ever again emerges from a global power like the US.

Hirotaka Shimizu
Chairman and CEO
Kamakura Shinsho, Ltd.

Image material：PIXTA