Dining out

The other day, I was seated at a restaurant awaiting the food I’d ordered, and what came to me was a cylindrical robot loaded down with dishes. The robot’s responsibility, strictly speaking, was to convey the food to the relay point for delivery, which was in very close proximity to the guests’ seats. The final few meters were the responsibility of the human server. It seems certain to me that it would be rather more efficient than having a human server make the entire trip for each guest’s meal.

Now that I think about it, I’ve recently encountered more than a few restaurants that ask you to scan a QR code and place your order from a menu on a website they have established. Traditionally, each table would be provided with several types of printed matter, including the primary menu, recommendations particular to the day or season, and a beverage selection. And the servers would visit each table and take orders on handwritten slips, so clearly IT-based efficiency has advanced to a degree in the food and beverage realm.

The changes have been gradual and thus not easy to notice, but technology continues to evolve, slowly but surely taking over jobs day by day that had previously been done by human beings. While the difference between yesterday and today is undetectable, no one can deny that there have been significant changes over the past five years. The total number of people engaged in food and beverage service should continue to fall, and this trend appears to be irreversible. Technology has even begun to displace human cooks at an increasing rate.

Catching a cab

Catching a cab has become more difficult for many people recently. I am one of those people, having hailed a cab not long ago. According to a driver, as the workforce ages and drivers retire one after another, there are few new drivers, which results in a surplus of cars. However, I can’t imagine that this situation will last long because of the continued evolution of autonomous driving technology. In a few years, safe, driverless car travel will be accepted by society, and there will certainly no longer be any restrictions on it. The day when human-operated vehicles are considered more dangerous will surely come at some point. When that happens, it will spell doom for the profession of taxi driver. (As an aside, companies like Uber and Go with dispatch networks will survive and make money hand over fist as they don’t need to bear the biggest cost, labor, meaning the drivers.) Of course, the same can be said of bus and truck drivers. In fact, all roles filled by humans related to transporting people and goods will be taken over by machines. There will also be changes in peripheral areas. Automobile insurance will become meaningless, and the car repair business will plummet. Amidst such conditions, regular car inspections would be the height of nonsense.

Generative AI

The most notable example of generative AI is ChatGPT, which seems to be in the news every day. What was extremely surprising to me about generative AI was that it had ventured into areas that had been considered exclusively human domains. Naturally, AI will continue to evolve without pause. As such, unlike food service and transportation jobs, generative AI will continue to usurp a bit of work every day, primarily from white-collar workers.

In this edition, I have opined about how the evolution of technology is unintentionally relieving human beings of their jobs in various arenas. It’s akin to the frog placed in a pot of water and unaware of the rising temperature, but when we appeal to the frog swimming comfortably at the right temperature about this crisis, it shows no sympathy.

People are screaming about the labor shortage. In Japan, the unemployment rate remains between two and three percent, and we no longer read or hear reports of people struggling to find jobs. In the U.S., the situation is more dire, with labor shortages driving wages upward, which in turn has caused sustained inflation. But again, while all but unnoticeable, this situation should accelerate the replacement by technology of human labor. And the watershed, when technology replacing labor outstrips labor shortages, will certainly arrive. For those who only see what’s occurring today, the labor shortage is a major issue, but for those who are in the habit of thinking on more of a macro level, the big question is how to support those who have been made obsolete by technology.

Sam Altman, CEO of ChatGPT creator OpenAI, when asked about human employment in the age of generative AI, optimistically said, “Current projections (that jobs will be lost) are inaccurate. Products that need to be made will not disappear, and new jobs will be created.” I suppose I’m not terribly bright because I can only imagine an intensifying conflict between those who have become unemployed due to technology and those who have secured positions that technology hasn’t evolved enough to fill. Basic income may be effective in times when the economic divide is at its broadest, but how can it erase the emotional sense of defeat as well as the financial aspect? No matter how vast the imbalance in income and well-being may be, in a democratic society, human rights and the right to vote provide balance. It is conceivable that populists will take control of political arenas on a global scale.

Let’s not let our imaginations run wild, though, as it is not terribly productive. Change is, after all, also an opportunity.

• The evolution of technology is silently taking the place of human labor, one day at a time.
• The shortage of labor accelerates technological evolution, and somewhere along the line, we will see a surplus of laborers.

I’ve said what I wanted to say for the moment. I’ll leave the rest to your imagination.

Hirotaka Shimizu
Chairman and CEO
Kamakura Shinsho, Ltd.